The Texas Grid: Bracing for Another Winter Test
As another winter storm looms, Texans grapple with questions about grid reliability, rising demand, and whether recent improvements are enough to keep the lights on.
As winter edges closer, Texans know that January doesn’t just bring cooler weather—it brings an air of uncertainty. This year, starting tomorrow through midweek (1/20/25 to 1/23/25), Texas could face another major winter weather event, and many of us are asking the same question: Is the grid ready?
I know my usual posts tend to lean into the inspirational—the grit of entrepreneurs, the creative spark of artists, the magic of everyday celebrations. But this one? This one hits home for everyone across Texas. When the power goes out, it doesn’t matter if you’re a maker, a dreamer, or just trying to keep your family warm. This is a story about resilience, preparation, and the systems we rely on to keep life running smoothly.
Déjà Vu with ERCOT’s Promises
ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) says we’ll have enough power to meet the demand, but forgive me if I’m a little wary. After all, they’ve said that before. Remember the blackouts during the 2021 winter storm? Or the grid infrastructure issues after those hurricanes in 2024? Promises of improvement feel hollow when your home’s temperature is dropping along with the grid frequency.
Sure, they’ve touted upgrades—more generation capacity, stricter winterization for power plants—but Texas is growing. More people means more demand, and the cracks in the system aren’t exactly hairline fractures. They’re glaring gaps, and winter tends to expose them.
The Changing Landscape Since 2021
The Texas power grid has seen significant changes in both supply and demand since the 2021 Winter Storm Uri. While there’s been progress, the challenges have only grown more complex.
Demand: More People, More Power Needed
Population and economic growth has been rapid. Texas’ booming population and economy mean demand today would likely exceed what caused the grid to fail in 2021.
Solar power has shifted peak electricity demand later in the day. As solar generation fades in the evening, heating needs persist, creating new challenges for maintaining grid stability during critical hours.
Supply: Progress with Challenges
Texas remains heavily reliant on natural gas power plants, even as some coal plants have been retired. This dependency leaves the grid vulnerable to freezing temperatures and disruptions.
Wind and solar capacity have grown significantly, providing cleaner and more diverse energy. However, their output depends on the weather, which can be a challenge during winter storms.
Power plants and natural gas facilities are now required to winterize, a key lesson from 2021. (Don’t get me started on energy providers passing the majority of winterization costs back to consumers, after their record profits). While this is a step forward, the system’s ability to withstand another extreme event remains untested.
Battery storage has expanded dramatically, and this is where Texas is making waves.
Texas’ Battery Storage Boom: A Bright Spot
Texas has seen a meteoric rise in battery storage capacity, growing from 500 megawatts in 2021 to over 5,700 megawatts by late 2024. That’s a 4,100% increase in just three years, making Texas one of the nation’s leaders in battery storage. While California still holds the top spot for total capacity, Texas is projected to overtake it soon.
This growth is fueled by abundant renewable energy resources, which create a need for storage to smooth out supply and demand fluctuations. ERCOT’s market rules have also made it easier for batteries to participate and generate revenue. The memory of the 2021 winter storm, with its devastating grid failures, has driven both public and private investment in storage solutions.
Why Does Battery Storage Matter?
Batteries play a crucial role in modernizing the grid and ensuring reliability, particularly during extreme weather. They can store excess wind and solar power, provide backup during outages, and improve the grid’s flexibility by responding quickly to changes in demand.
The Challenges
Despite this progress, batteries aren’t a silver bullet. Their current capacity is still small compared to the overall size of the Texas grid. They are well-suited for short-term challenges but may not provide enough support during prolonged crises.
2021 vs. Now: Has Supply Caught Up with Demand?
Whether the grid improvements since 2021 are enough to handle an extreme winter event remains an open question. Here’s where things stand.
Reasons for Optimism
Texas has added significant renewable energy and expanded overall generation capacity. Winterization requirements have improved resilience against freezing conditions. The rapid growth in battery storage bolsters reliability, particularly during peak hours. ERCOT’s expanded demand response programs incentivize consumers to reduce electricity use during critical periods.
Reasons for Concern
Texas’ population growth has driven electricity demand higher, putting more stress on the grid. Solar and wind, while invaluable, are weather-dependent and may not deliver during a storm. An even colder, longer, or more widespread storm than 2021 could overwhelm the system. Despite significant progress, battery storage remains limited compared to the demands of an extended winter crisis.
The Big Picture: Complex Problems, No Easy Fixes
The Texas grid is a massive, intricate system. Adding more power generation alone doesn’t guarantee reliability—it takes careful grid management, demand-side solutions, and investment in diverse energy sources and storage. While ERCOT and state leaders have made progress, I’m not ready to declare the problem solved.
Ready for What Comes
For now, I’m preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Like I always say, “EVERY day is a celebration,” but let’s be honest: some days might be celebrated by candlelight if things go south.
So here’s my plan: charge up the batteries (the portable kind), stock up on blankets, set aside some beverages of choice and keep the pantry ready. Because when it comes to Texas winters, being prepared is just as important as being optimistic.
Stay warm, y’all—and let’s hope we get through this one with the lights on.
Astro Joe Garcia
Hurricane - Band of Heathens
The song Hurricane by Band of Heathens feels like a fitting anthem for this discussion about the Texas power grid and its struggle to weather literal and metaphorical storms. With its tale of destruction, resilience, and the raw forces of nature, the song captures the tension between human efforts to control the uncontrollable and the inevitability of chaos. Here in Texas, the imagery hits especially close to home—not just because of Winter Storm Uri, but because so many of us have experienced hurricanes firsthand. From Harvey to Ike to the storms of 2024, Texans know what it’s like to watch nature strip everything down to its essentials and test our ability to rebuild. At its core, Hurricane speaks to survival, community, and the determination to press on—qualities that define Texans in the face of every storm, whether it’s a hurricane or a freezing blackout.